Use our Free Colorado Expected Value Calculator to see whether a bet is mathematically worth taking before you place it. Plug in your odds, your estimated chance of winning, and your stake, and the tool instantly returns the expected value (EV) of the bet. This helps Colorado bettors focus on long-term profitability instead of short-term results.
Expected Value Calculator
Expected Value Calculator Instructions
- Select your odds format (American, Decimal, or Fractional).
- Enter the odds for your bet (for example, -110, +150, 2.50, or 3/2).
- Enter your estimated probability of winning (in %).
- Input your stake amount (how much you plan to bet).
- ClickCalculate to see the expected value in dollars and as a percentage.
- Use the result to decide whether a bet is +EV (profitable in the long run) or -EV (unprofitable).
What is an Expected Value Calculator?
An expected value (EV) calculator is a tool that tells you how much you can expect to win or lose on average if you made the same bet thousands of times. Instead of asking “Will this bet win tonight?”, EV asks “If I repeated this spot forever, would I make or lose money?”
Our Colorado Expected Value Calculator has been built to give you a quick, numbers-first snapshot. Deeper strategy, models, and betting theory are covered separately in full guides on the Colorado Betting Hub homepage.
How Does the Expected Value Calculator Work?
The EV calculator combines three things:
- The odds offered by the sportsbook
- Your estimated probability of winning
- Your stake size
From there, it calculates the average gain or loss per bet and tells you if the wager is positive EV or negative EV.
Example
EV = (P(win) × Profit if win) − (P(lose) × Stake)
Where:
- P(win)= your estimated probability of winning
- P(lose)= 1 − P(win)
- Profit if win= net profit (not including returned stake)
- Stake= your bet size
1. Converting Odds to Payout
American Odds:
- If odds are positive (e.g., +150): Profit on $100 =Odds / 100 → +150 returns $150 profit on $100 stake.
- If odds are negative (e.g., -150): Profit on $100 =100 × (100 / |Odds|) → -150 returns about $66.67 profit on $100 stake.
Decimal Odds:
- Profit =Stake × (Decimal − 1)
Example
- Odds:+150
- Stake:$100
- Your estimated win probability:45%
Profit if win = $150
- P(win) = 0.45
- P(lose) = 0.55
- EV = (0.45 × 150) − (0.55 × 100)
- EV = 67.5 – 55
- EV =+$12.50
Total Payout: On average, this bet would return $12.50 profit per $100 bet over the long term.
If EV had been negative (for example, -$8), that would signal a -EV bet — likely not worth taking repeatedly.
Expected Value Odds Profit Chart
An EV chart helps you see how different combinations of win probability and odds translate into long-term profitability. Use this alongside the calculator to get a feel for when a price might be worth attacking at Colorado sportsbooks.
Assume a $100 stake:
| Odds (American) | Your Win Probability | EV per Bet | EV Verdict |
| -110 | 55% | +$4.50 | +EV |
| -110 | 50% | -$4.76 | -EV |
| +120 | 46% | +$7.20 | +EV |
| +120 | 40% | -$4.00 | -EV |
| +200 | 36% | +$8.00 | +EV |
| +200 | 30% | -$10.00 | -EV |
These are simplified examples—real-world projections and odds will vary by game and Colorado sportsbook.
Use the chart and calculator together to:
- See how small changes in win probability drastically impact EV
- Understand why “good odds” are only good if your edge is real
- Train your intuition for which prices might be worth digging into further
Expected Value and Strategies
The Expected Value Calculator is a decision-support tool, not a crystal ball. It doesn’t tell you what the “true” probability is — you supply that number. What EV does is check whether the price you’re being offered aligns with your own projections.
Quick tips
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Be honest with your probabilities – Overestimating your edge will make everything look +EV.
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Compare multiple Colorado sportsbooks – A small odds boost can flip a bet from -EV to +EV.
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Think long-term, not one-night results – Even great +EV bets lose in the short run.
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Track your estimates – Over time, compare your projections to actual outcomes to see if you really have an edge.
Responsible Gambling
Even the smartest EV models can’t remove variance or guarantee profit. The Colorado Expected Value Calculator is here to help you understand risk–reward, not to push bigger bets.
Sports betting in Colorado should remain fun, social, and within your financial limits. If you ever feel pressure to bet more to “chase EV” or recover losses, it’s time to take a step back. If you need help visit our page for responsible gambling.
State Gambling Help:
- Colorado Problem Gambling Coalition – Offers information, education, and referrals to support services for individuals and families affected by gambling.
- 1-800-GAMBLER (Colorado Helpline) – Free, confidential help line available 24/7 for anyone concerned about their gambling or a loved one’s gambling.
- Colorado Division of Gaming – Responsible Gambling Resources – Provides information on self-exclusion programs, setting betting limits, and additional support tools for Colorado bettors.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What does the Expected Value Calculator actually tell me?
It tells you how much you can expect to win or lose on average per bet, based on your estimated win probability and the odds being offered.
2. What is a +EV bet?
A +EV (positive expected value) bet is one where, over the long term, you’d expect to profit if you placed the same bet many times under the same conditions.
3. Can a +EV bet still lose?
Yes. EV is about long-term averages, not guaranteed short-term results. A +EV bet can lose today and still be a good decision mathematically.
4. Where do I get my win probability from?
You provide it. It might come from your own models, historical data, matchup analysis, or trusted projections. The calculator doesn’t decide the probability—it just uses what you input.
5. Does the calculator work with all odds formats?
Yes. You can use American, Decimal, or Fractional odds as long as you enter them correctly and select the right format.
6. Can I use this for parlays?
You can use it if you first calculate the combined odds for the parlay and then plug in your estimated probability of the parlay winning. The logic is the same, just with bigger variance.
7. Is EV the same as profit per bet?
Not exactly. EV is the average profit or loss if the bet were repeated many times. Your actual profit on any individual bet will be either full win or full loss.
8. Why does my EV look negative even when I like the bet?
That usually means your estimated win probability doesn’t justify the price you’re getting. Either the line is sharp, or your edge isn’t as big as it feels.
9. Do Colorado sportsbooks care about EV?
They don’t label it that way, but their entire pricing model is built around implied probabilities and margins. EV just lets you see the game from the numbers side.
10. Is this tool good for beginners?
Yes. It’s one of the best tools for helping beginners move from “gut feeling” to structured, math-based thinking about sports betting.