Use our Free Colorado Kelly Criterion Calculator to determine the optimal stake size for any bet based on your estimated edge and bankroll. This tool helps Colorado bettors apply a disciplined, math‑driven approach to bankroll management—without guesswork. Enter your odds, win probability, and bankroll, and the calculator instantly shows how much you should wager to maximize long‑term growth.
Kelly Criterion Calculator
Kelly Criterion Calculator Instructions
- Enter the odds for your bet (American, Decimal, or Fractional).
- Enter your estimated probability of winning (%).
- Input your total bankroll.
- Click Calculate to see your recommended Kelly bet size.
- Choose whether to apply Full Kelly, Half Kelly, or Quarter Kelly depending on your risk tolerance.
What is a Kelly Criterion Calculator?
A Kelly Criterion calculator determines the mathematically optimal amount to bet when you believe you have an edge. Instead of guessing stake size, Kelly uses probability and payout to find the most efficient long‑term growth rate.
This Colorado‑optimized version keeps things simple—perfect for quick estimates before placing a wager. For more in‑depth strategy, visit the Colorado Betting Hub homepage.
How Does the Kelly Criterion Calculator Work?
The Kelly formula compares your estimated win probability to the implied probability in the odds. The difference between those numbers—the edge—determines your optimal stake as a percentage of your bankroll.
Kelly Formula
Kelly % = (bp – q) / b
Where:
- b= decimal odds − 1 (profit multiple)
- p= your estimated probability of winning
- q= 1 − p
Example
- Odds:+150 (Decimal 2.50 → b = 1.5)
- Estimated win probability:45% (p = 0.45)
- q = 0.55
- Kelly % = (1.5 × 0.45 − 0.55) / 1.5
- Kelly % = (0.675 − 0.55) / 1.5
- Kelly % ≈083 → 8.3% of bankroll
If bankroll = $2,000 → Recommended full Kelly stake = $166.
Total Payout
At +150, a $166 bet returns $415 total. //bw quote box end
Kelly Criterion Odds Profit Chart
A quick snapshot of how different edges translate into Kelly stake sizes. Values assume +100 (even money) odds for simplicity.
|
Win Probability |
Edge vs. Market |
Kelly % of Bankroll |
|
52% |
+2% edge |
4% |
|
55% |
+5% edge |
10% |
|
58% |
+8% edge |
16% |
|
60% |
+10% edge |
20% |
|
65% |
+15% edge |
30% |
For larger odds or higher edges, Kelly grows—but so does risk. Many Colorado bettors use Half Kelly or Quarter Kelly to manage volatility.
Kelly Criterion Value and Strategies
Kelly works best as a bankroll management framework, not a prediction engine. You provide the probability—Kelly simply tells you how much of your bankroll you should risk.
Quick tips:
- Use fractional Kelly (½ or ¼) for smoother results.
- Be realistic with probability estimates—overconfidence leads to oversized bets.
- Shop lines across Colorado sportsbooks—better odds increase Kelly edge.
- Track your estimates—improve accuracy over time.
Responsible Gambling
Sports betting should always stay fun and manageable. Use tools like this calculator to make informed decisions, and refer to our Responsible Gambling resources to help set healthy limits.
Only wager amounts that fit comfortably within your budget. If betting stops feeling like entertainment, it’s important to reach out for support.
State Gambling Help:
- Colorado Problem Gambling Coalition – Offers information, education, and referrals to support services for individuals and families affected by gambling.
- 1-800-GAMBLER (Colorado Helpline) – Free, confidential help line available 24/7 for anyone concerned about their gambling or a loved one’s gambling.
- Colorado Division of Gaming – Responsible Gambling Resources – Provides information on self-exclusion programs, setting betting limits, and additional support tools for Colorado bettors.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What does the Kelly Criterion calculator do?
It calculates the optimal bet size based on your estimated win probability, the odds, and your bankroll.
2. What is Full Kelly vs. Half Kelly?
Full Kelly bets the mathematically optimal amount; Half Kelly cuts risk and variance in half while maintaining long‑term efficiency.
3. Does Kelly guarantee profit?
No. Kelly optimizes long‑term expected growth but cannot eliminate variance or losing streaks.
4. Where do I get the win probability?
You provide it. Kelly only calculates stake size based on your estimate.
5. Can I use this for parlays?
Yes—if you calculate the parlay’s combined odds and estimate the probability of the entire ticket winning.
6. Why do Kelly stakes look high sometimes?
If your estimated edge is large, Kelly suggests larger stakes—but most bettors use fractional Kelly to reduce volatility.
7. Does Kelly work for Colorado sportsbooks?
Yes. Kelly applies universally to any odds format offered at Colorado books.
8. Can the calculator handle negative odds?
Yes. Just enter the odds and your probability—the calculator handles the rest.
9. Is Kelly good for beginners?
It’s a strong long‑term tool, but beginners should start with fractional Kelly for safety.
10. Does Kelly account for bankroll changes?
You should recalculate stakes as your bankroll grows or shrinks—Kelly is dynamic.